Fleet operators and delivery firms have been warned to brace for a chaotic Black Friday week on the roads, with predicted stop-start traffic and delivery delays that will impact on fuel use and emissions.
With smarter planning, fleets can protect delivery ETAs, drivers and margins
This year’s Black Friday shopping extravaganza falls on 28 November and new figures from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) trade body and advisory group KPMG show that many consumers have delayed spending, waiting for Black Friday deals.
Geotab has warned fleet operators and couriers to prepare for the upcoming pressure on roads across the Black Friday week, which will affect delivery times and also have a measurable impact on fuel use and emissions. Although its figures relate specifically to the UK and Ireland, similar patterns were evident across all of Europe.
In 2024, trips per vehicle rose by 12% compared to the beginning of the month while idling climbed by nearly 10% in the week of Black Friday – clear signs that gridlock, late deliveries and higher emissions are set to return this year.
The Geotab data, taken from billions of vehicle data points daily, also reveals key patterns from Black Friday week 2024 that will likely repeat in 2025. The 12% rise in trips per vehicle compared to the beginning of the month peaked at 16% as vans squeezed in more drops.
At the same time, average distance per trip fell 8%, pointing to denser, short-hop routes to homes and click-and-collect points.
Idling jumped 9% as drivers were gridlocked or left the engine running during kerbside deliveries
And fuel consumed per vehicle increased by 8% compared to the beginning of the month, driving up emissions and costs – even before the Christmas rush.
The surge in fuel consumption was mirrored by an equivalent rise in CO₂ output per vehicle, underlining the direct link between stop-start urban driving and emissions performance.
Edward Kulperger, senior vice president, Europe at Geotab, said: “Black Friday shouldn’t mean burning unnecessary time or fuel. The data tells us that this crunch is predictable: more drops, shorter hops and far longer idling. Yet with smarter planning – down to the minute and the meter – fleets can protect delivery ETAs, drivers and margins.”
Geotab said the data shows that even small changes in driving patterns at national scale have big consequences.
In Black Friday week 2024, the firm’s analysis found per-vehicle fuel use jumped from a 48L baseline to ~52L, adding cost and CO2 at precisely the moment delivery demand soars. Multiply that across busy last-mile fleets in the UK and Ireland and the hidden cost to wallets and air quality quickly adds up.
Geotab has also published its tips to help fleets and couriers mitigate the impact of Black Friday week:
- Micro-route for car-park reality: Plan by entrance/egress and known choke points, not just postcodes – idling is the enemy on Black Friday
- Stagger drops and batch nearby consignments to further maintain rolling speeds and cut engine-on dwell
- Tune driver coaching for short-hop urban work (gentle throttle, engine-off dwell policies, safe reverse park practices) to trim seconds at each stop and reduce collision risk
- Deploy EVs where they can win: 2024 data shows EV share of trips dipped during peak hours, therefore use charging/shift planning to keep EVs on the most stop-start urban loops
Geotab added: “The data shows that delivery intensity remains elevated through Christmas, but route profiles gradually lengthen and idling falls slightly. This signals a broader shift from shorter urban drops to further-reaching, regional runs. Fleets that are able to understand this transition will be in a stronger position to adjust resource allocation across the season.”